9-11 2021: THIS IS A TIME TO ENGAGE THE UNO SECURITY COUNCIL

 

 

9-11 2021: a time to engage the UN Security Council

By Vidvuds Beldavs

Twenty years ago, Al Qaeda operatives struck the U.S. resulting in the deaths of 2,974 people.  The U.S. responded, invaded Afghanistan, defeated the Taliban and weakened Al Qaeda preventing further attacks on the American homeland.  In the 20 years that followed in Afghanistan millions of girls and women were educated and wider opportunities were created for the Afghan people.

Now the Taliban have seized power again.  Paul Miller sees the fall of Kabul as a major milestone in the collapse of world order. Miller points to other milestones including the occupation of Iraq and the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. There are many other signs of collapse at a time when a functioning world order is critically needed to address climate change, pandemics and other global threats.

Jeffrey Sachs appealed to the G7 to call for the early recognition of the Taliban as a legitimate government coupled with strategically directed developmental assistance that builds capacity in Afghanistan rather than feeds aid organizations or supports insurgencies against the Taliban.

Regardless of Taliban stated commitments to an inclusive government and respect for the rights of women and minorities the Taliban is an international terrorist organization that has seized control of a sovereign state thru force. The Taliban must earn legitimacy to rule.

President Ashraf Ghani has not surrendered.  He fled Kabul to avoid bloodshed. As a result over 122,000 could be evacuated by the U.S. and many thousands more by other countries.

The Taliban have cooperated with the evacuation.  However, the interim government announced by the Taliban on 7 September is not inclusive at all.  All members of the government that have been announced are Taliban, all but three are Pushtun and there are no women. The Taliban expect the international community to recognize their rule as legitimate but they continue to commit extrajudicial killings, brutally suppress demonstrations by women, and fail to respond to the call for negotiations regarding formation of an inclusive government from Afghan vice president Amrullah Saleh.

At this point it appears that the Taliban are unwilling and perhaps unable to fulfil the commitments made in the Doha Agreement as well as subsequent commitments to Russia, China, the UK, the U.S. and other countries.

It appears that Mike Pompeo and Donald Trump trusted the Taliban and fulfilled commitments such as the release of 5,000 Taliban fighters and the cessation of U.S. actions against the Taliban.  The Trump – Taliban agreement did not bind the Taliban to not attack Afghan government forces or to not seize territory. By the end of the Trump administration the Taliban controlled 50% of Afghanistan including all major highways.  U.S. air support of Afghan government forces was not allowed.  Resupply of bases distant from Kabul often involved payoffs to the Taliban that controlled the highways.  The legitimacy granted to the Taliban as the dominant force in Afghanistan by Trump and exclusion of the government from negotiations with the U.S. strengthened Taliban dealings with local leaders. In the face of recognition by Trump that the future of Afghanistan belonged to the Taliban many local leaders either gave up or even switched sides.

The choices for president Biden were either a large surge of U.S. troops to regain leverage with the Taliban or to live with the agreement and evacuate Americans and allies as soon as possible.

Now the international community must address the problem that the Taliban has seized control of a country that they do not have the capacity to govern, and the lives of 30 million people are at risk.

Jeffrey Sachs’s call for early recognition of the Taliban coupled with a large strategically directed aid program cannot work and would establish the precedent that a terrorist group can seize a country and be rescued by aid from the international community despite their failure to govern and continuing terrorist actions.

What can work is UN Security Council full engagement to address the failed state problem in Afghanistan by taking the following actions:

1)     Continue to recognize President Ghani as the head of state of Afghanistan until a legitimate government is formed in Afghanistan that meets conditions set by the Security Council.

2)     Declare that a referendum of all citizens of Afghanistan must be conducted to determine the basis of the state government in Afghanistan.  If the referendum grants the Taliban legitimacy to rule, then recognition of a Taliban government by the international community can follow.  If the referendum shows that the people of Afghanistan prefer another form of government the Taliban could then be given a role proportionate to the level of backing as reflected in the vote of the people.

The U.S. may not be best positioned at this time to raise this question at the Security Council.  The Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have had a significant role in Afghanistan for their size. Over the 20 years about 3,000 Latvian soldiers have served in Afghanistan through NATO. The Baltic States could raise a recommendation for Security Council through both NATO and the EU Commission. Additionally, Estonia is currently a member of the UN Security Council.

President Ashraf Ghani is a leading scholar of state development. His book with co-author Clare Lockhart Fixing Failed States provides a framework to address the problem facing the world in Afghanistan and other failing states. Failed states can be very costly for the global community spawning terrorism, dysfunction and demanding aid.

Why solid policy recommendations in his book failed in Afghanistan needs to be addressed. As the internationally recognized president of Afghanistan Ghani could provide guidance to the Security Council to avoid the problems that prevented sound policy and enabled the Taliban to again seize power.

Vidvuds Beldavs is a futurist who serves as Chairman of the Riga Photonics Centre in Latvia and frequently also provides expertise to Wikistrat in considering future developments in science and technology as well as geopolitics.